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Tom Welsh's avatar

Lord Skidelsky still seems to me to be missing the point: Russia went to every possible length to deal with the Ukraine situation by diplomacy before resorting to limited violence. For 8 years after the 2014 coup d'etat in Kiev, Russia did everything it possibly could to reach agreement. Three times major agreements were reached: Minsk 1, Minsk 2, and Istanbul in 2022. The West and Kiev ignored their obligations completely, and later Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron frankly admitted that they had never intended to and were merely playing for time. At Istanbul Russia and Kiev had agreed and Kiev had even signed, when Boris Johnson bustled up and ordered them to renege. (That single fact tells the whole story: obviously Ukraine was not sovereign, but a servant of NATO).

Russia's motives for the SMO were twofold: to save the citizens of Donbass and Crimea from further war crimes - Kiev had already deliberately murdered over 10,000 civilians there; and to protect Russia itself from imminent bombardment and even invasion, which were planned by January 2022. Russia maintains that NATO and the people behind it are determined to overthrow the Russian government as they did the Ukrainian; to destroy Russia's sovereignty and ability to defend itself; and to break it up into easily-plundered small units. So Russia is acting in self-defence.

Tom Welsh's avatar

"Was the humiliation of Russia sufficiently bad in 2022 to justify its invasion of Ukraine? Was the situation in Ukraine sufficiently bad in 2022 to justify its resistance?"

Very much so. A comparison with 1939-45 may help to lend perspective. In 1944 the USA and Britain launched a "full-scale invasion" of France, and subsequently Germany. Why? Whatever the misdeeds of Germany, one can argue that they did not concern Britain. Moreover, Germany did not declare war on Britain and France in 1939; they declared war on Germany. So whatever harm resulted, they brought it on themselves.

I firmly believe that the harm threatened to Novorossia and Russia itself in early 2022 was greater than that threatened to Britain in 1939-40 - at which time Hitler himself made many, many peaceful approaches to Britain, all of which were rejected or ignored. Britain was perhaps threatened with invasion and occupation, which of course never happened. One may argue that even if Germany had occupied Britain, it would not have hurt British people as much as defeat by the West would hurt Russia. After all, today important people are proposing nuclear attacks on Russia. And the terrible experience of the 1990s was far worse for Russia than the suffering of Britain in both world wars. Quite naturally, Russians do not want to repeat such an experience.

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